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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

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