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Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.