‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.
The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's homes.
As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of kitchen fuel are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.
"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.
Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are switching to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."
Localized Effects
In Mumbai, local news say up to a fifth of eateries are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers observe a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Authority's View
Yet, the officials maintains there is no shortage.
India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and officials say supplies are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.
About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.
The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been caused by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about under three days," says a senior official.
Widening Concern
Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.
According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.
India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.
Based on shipping data and credible market sources, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The key weakness is cooking gas, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.
Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.
In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of panic buying.
An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.
"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
